A war between Scadrial (era 2) and Roshar

[jasenerd]

To the people saying guns can be reversed engineered easily:

 

No. You are so wrong it's actually hilarious. 

First? Gunpowder. Roshar hasn't discovered black powder as far as I can tell, so they have no hope of understanding gunpowder to the point of being able to soulcast them. Remember that you have to actually understand what it is you want to make.

 

Two? Internal mechanics. While the exterior of a gun is easy to model, it's all the fiddly inner pieces that actually make them hard to remake without any cultural or scholarly understanding of what a gun is. If the scadrians where stuck on muskets, I might wave this point, but Vindication(I admit that it's a state of the art weapon on Scadrial, but it does show my point) is made to have two ammo "Compartments"(Kinda) where a button/lever would allow you to spin to different, predetermined shots.

 

Third? Understanding how guns work. As hard as it is to believe, it's not always obvious that the metal casing have gunpowder, meaning that the Rosharian engineers will likely associate it with some of the people ability to move metal supernaturally. The two abilities(Steelpushing and guns) look alot alike if you don't understand that the metal box might be a mundane machine(of which roshar has almost none of, Their only machines are all fabricals(Unless I'm wrong))

 

Finally? That assuming that the Scadrians leave guns behind(which is more of a coin flip than anything). It's really easy to get them back, all it would take is a single lurcher.

 

Other points?

 

Nothing has changed about the Scadrians being able to use hemalurgy. Take some sneaky prisoners, then spike their memories/knowledge. Then you nullify much of the advantages of local terrain, differing strategies and perhaps even unlocking the ability to use Soulcasters/Shards/Radiant spren(depending on if they are willing to experiment to find out how to spike the nehel bond out of a person).

 

Then we move to the Kandra. I mean, how in Damnation are the Rosharians supposed to react to literal shapechangers that can replace key individuals in leadership or production or anywhere. And since Koloss have some ability to breed now, they are a factor. So another advantage for the non-human allies.

 

Now, Roshar had two key advantages in this "war":

 

Shardblades/plates are invested enough to be more resistant to any direct manipulation with Allomancy. It could throw enough of them off to spell a couple early victories.

 

Stormlight lets them heal all of their radiants/honorblades, make food/water/weapons/ect, manipulate the surges. That's a lot of utility of the substance that the Scadrians just can't use(unless/until they do a little of the stabby stabby with the Spiky spikes).

[Three1415]

I concur with Voidus--Scadrial is so overpowered in comparison to Roshar that it's not even funny. Plus, keep in mind Hemalurgy's utility in war--if Scadrial were to be really efficient, most Mistings or Ferrings that fell in battle could be spiked on their deathbeds and their power reused or concentrated into others. 

 

Higher rates of attrition would only accelerate this process, and sooner rather than later (I estimate within a year), Scadrial could have at least one Fullborn running around (if they wanted to be really morally lax, the government could just round up a few Ferrings and Mistings, spike them, and have some Fullborn immediately), at which point it's game over for Roshar, as a Fullborn Compounder might as well be god (*cough*TLR*cough*)--unlimited healing and determination, immortality, no need for air, food, water, sleep, with ludicrous speed and strength...Heck, a single Fullborn could probably conquer Roshar (or any of the Shardworlds, probably) without that much difficulty.

 

If Scadrial were unwilling to concentrate that much power into a single person (it is, after all, probably inadvisable), their industrial economy, far larger population (the Basin's population alone probably exceeds that of the entirety of Roshar), more advanced technology, and generally far greater magical prevalence and potency would still make a mockery of anything Roshar could throw at it, even if the KR did return in full. 

 

Edit: And as jasenerd points out above, Scadrial has at the very least fieldable koloss, who are on their own probably the rough equivalent of a Shardbearer (here's a nightmarish thought: Give a koloss a captured Shardblade/Plate. That wouldn't end well for anyone in the general vicinity). Also, if Harmony gives them free reign, kandra are completely immortal...Yeah, Roshar is doomed.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Three1415

[Oversleep]

Nothing has changed about the Scadrians being able to use hemalurgy. Take some sneaky prisoners, then spike their memories/knowledge.

Nothing has changed about Hemalurgy being unkown to Scadrians. And I dind't know we now have a method to spike memories out of a person.

 

I concur with Voidus--Scadrial is so overpowered in comparison to Roshar that it's not even funny. Plus, keep in mind Hemalurgy's utility in war--if Scadrial were to be really efficient, most Mistings or Ferrings that fell in battle could be spiked on their deathbeds and their power reused or concentrated into others.

Yeah, except that nobody knows about Hemalurgy.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Oversleep

[Voidus]

Nothing has changed about Hemalurgy being unkown to Scadrians. And I dind't know we now have a method to spike memories out of a person.

 

Yeah, except that nobody knows about Hemalurgy.

Unknown to most Scadrians but there're enough who know about it for it to be a legitimate problem. There always was, it's just not advisable since it'd probably cause the recipient to go insane.

Well there's the Set, Marasi, Wax, Wayne, the Kandra, the constabulary...

[+Authweight]

Soulcasting allowed for a pre-industrial army of over 100,000 people to encamp in a single location with little-to-no agriculture/hunting for over six years. I am fairly sure that Rosharan armies are easier to keep supplied in the field thanks to soulcasting. Point to Roshar.

I think you're severely underestimating the power of an industrial economy. The German army in WWI (fairly similar to the basin in tech and size, as far as I can tell) fielded an army of 13 million people for four years. Alethkar's 100,000 is impressive by pre-industrial standards, but is a fraction of what a 20th century economy can field in cases of total war.

[Rasarr]

Reading up on this, something that's been mentioned before but not really expanded upon is, so to put it, societal issues. Roshar has slaves, and in none-too-small numbers, not to mention an entire slave race (Parshmen), whereas Scadrial has a history of having an entire "slave race" of their own (the skaa). For one, this could be a huge motivator for Scadrians, and Elendel could spin it as a war of liberation. For other, if it became publicly known that Scadrial doesn't endorse slavery - say, something like a grand proclamation of slave liberation on Scadrial-taken lands - Alethkar could find itself with a slave uprising on their hands, with the slaves supporting Scadrial, providing intelligence, et cetera. In turn, Alethkar has very little to offer Scadrians - not only is their standard of life much lower and societal system much more unfair, but descendants of skaa are unlikely to be willing to co-operate with slave-keepers.

 

On the other hand, assuming that Scadrial is the aggressor and the war takes place on Roshar, the Basin is far from unified, politically speaking. As we've seen in BoM, many cities are resentful of Elendel, so if Elendel started to wage a war against Alethkar, it would be only Elendel's industry and populace that counted, not that of the entire basin. Other cities would be likely to stand on the sidelines and cheer for Alethkar - if not, depending on how deep the resentment runs, outright support Roshar, with intel if not tech and weaponry. 

 

This goes both ways, of course - other Rosharan nations, especially those with few Shards and powerful neighbors, would be likely to throw their support behind Scadrial in exchange for things like railroads, if not gun tech. I imagine Taravangian, with his knowledge of upcoming catastrophe, would be ecstatic to get weaponry that doesn't require radiants to operate, can be mass-fielded and is probably powerful enough to take down stormform Parshendi if in enough quantity.

 

If Roshar is the aggressor, the Basin will probably unite; which is a moot point anyway, because invading Scadrial would leave Roshar with no fabrials and no Stormlight, robbing them of Shardplate, insta-food, instant communications and all other advantages that give their army fighting edge, whereas Scadrial would have the entirety of their magic systems in working order.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Rasarr

[jasenerd]

Nothing has changed about Hemalurgy being unkown to Scadrians. And I dind't know we now have a method to spike memories out of a person.

 

Yeah, except that nobody knows about Hemalurgy.

 

We know that an entire book of knowledge still exists about hemalurgy. Discounting any of the protagonists(Or Antagonists) that know hemalurgy, that book(and it's presumed copies) would be enough to teach how to preform hemalurgy.

 

In one of the Ars Arcanum, Brandon gave us that Copper steals Memory and Intellligence. He would give us this if it's not something that the Ars Arcanum Author knew. If the Author knew, it's likely either Spook or Marsh knew. If they knew, then it would be in the book about hemalurgy. So yes, we do have a method for spike memories out of people.

[Landis963]

We know that an entire book of knowledge still exists about hemalurgy. Discounting any of the protagonists(Or Antagonists) that know hemalurgy, that book(and it's presumed copies) would be enough to teach how to preform hemalurgy.

 

In one of the Ars Arcanum, Brandon gave us that Copper steals Memory and Intellligence. He would give us this if it's not something that the Ars Arcanum Author knew. If the Author knew, it's likely either Spook or Marsh knew. If they knew, then it would be in the book about hemalurgy. So yes, we do have a method for spike memories out of people.

 

I was under the impression that copper spikes the capacity for memory and intelligence out of a victim - as part of a kandra Blessing.  Not something specific.  

[Argel]

As far as the basin not being united, there's noting like a common enemy to unite people (1984 anyone?). For that matter, greed (an entire new planet to pillage).

 

With that said, how would Cultivation react? And Odium could see it as an invasion by Harmony, and I doubt he would sit back and watch that happen. Though he might not have time to respond....

[dadradahmember]

I don't think Scadrial would be able to field enough soldiers (soldiers=magic users plus regular people with weapons) in Roshar in order to make a difference. They would have to build hundreds if not thousands of FTL ships to carry enough soldiers to make Rosharans run for there lives.  now if they build a death star then that's different (Kaladin I am your father). Even if they have the resources they do not have the economic means and, come on, people would not join one cause.  Scadrial is too divided.  Look at it from the US perspective and Islamist terrorist.  Some say we should go and root them out, others complain about how much it would cost, others just don't care, etc etc.

 

We know that there is a kandra in Roshar; how it got there, we don't know, used the cognitive realm? perhaps but everything we know about Scadrial they cannot worldhop or enter the cognitive realm.  Rosharans can and they might be able to worldhop eventually, maybe, perhaps.  So, Rosharans can do raids and wear them out eventually. 

 

So, my conclusions is that Rosharans will win. not with conventional, see your enemy tactics but by raids and unconventional means.  

[IndigoAjah]

We know that people can world hop from Scadrial, Demoux at least has done so

 

 

 

As for soldiers, send one person with the Bands or another method of being Fullborn and that may be enough by itself

Edited March 29, 2016 by IndigoAjah

[natc]

. . . yeah, they have no way to really stop someone with the Bands do they? Besides exhausting them of metals.

[Edgedancer]

For the people saying that Roshar (well, Alethkar really) has the better war ecconomy. Said ecconomy is based around farming the gemhearts, so while they are still very millitary based, their current army would just collapse in a full on war with Scadrial, as they just can't take the time to farm gemhearts anymore.

[IndigoAjah]

. . . yeah, they have no way to really stop someone with the Bands do they? Besides exhausting them of metals.

Best not let them get a Soulcaster then!

[Pathfinder]

There is also to take in to account is the magic systems "fuel" source. WoB show that a misting/mistborn can burn any metal from any planet as long as it has the right allomantic composition. It just acts like a gateway to harmony. So there is nothing stopping Scadrialians from using their abilities on Roshar. However, have a Rosharan army do an extended battle on Scadrial and suddenly all the radiants run out of juice. Even on Roshar, the Radiants would be dependent on the high storms to fuel up and need to ration stormlight.  

[natc]

Best not let them get a Soulcaster then!

If Identity doesn't help against that, then the Bands would probably still help resist soulcasting by virtue of being way too invested.

BoM minor spoilers

I mean, once you start leaking Mist from yourself and can see souls directly, you are pretty invested to the hilt.

Never mind that soulcasters are metal.

[Erunion]

Era 2 Scadrial massively outmatches Roshar (as it stands now) in terms of technology and economy. 

Roshar massively outmatches Scadrial in terms of military theory, experience, tactics and training. Scadrial had 1000 years of suppression under TLR, then 300+ years of peace, time Roshar has spent at war. 

 

Nevertheless, technology is just a huge advantage. Would Scadrial win in a pitched battle? Almost certainly. Would they win in a defensive war on Scadrian soil? Without a doubt. 

 

However, I can't help but see this as a Vietnam war style situation. The Basin is politically fractured. The Scadrians would be undeniably the aggressors. Scadrian mass media is a thing (with newspapers/etc.). Scadrial doesn't have the history or motivation for the glory of the Empire and Imperialism, nor the sense of local conflict and a mad rush for resources that motivated the Europeans in their imperialist endeavors in the 19th century. 

 

 

Would Scadrial win the battles? Yes. But with significant casualties; enough to discourage people back home. 

 

Would they win the war? Only with sufficient motivation, which frankly, they don't have. They have only a tenuous connection to their slave class of some 300 years ago - Scadrian peacelovers would certainly point out that Rosharin slavery could easily be abolished by diplomacy and importing technology, leaving the Scadrian's without sufficient motivation for war, let alone the Total War of WWI/WWII.

 

 

A much more interesting war, however, would be The Final Empire vs. a newly unified Alethkar under Gavilar. That would be much better balanced and more interesting conflict. 

Edited March 29, 2016 by Erunion

[IndigoAjah]

If Identity doesn't help against that, then the Bands would probably still help resist soulcasting by virtue of being way too invested.

BoM minor spoilers

I mean, once you start leaking Mist from yourself and can see souls directly, you are pretty invested to the hilt.

Never mind that soulcasters are metal.

I meant don't let the Fullborn get a soulcaster - basically would give them infinite access to metal and thus infinite Allomancy to go with their infinite Feruchemy

 

 

And let's be honest: They WOULD get a Soulcaster, very quickly. And then frankly it's over

 

 

EDIT: My bad. I forgot Nightblood was on Roshar. In which case, TLR (Mk 2) vs Nightblood is interesting...

Edited March 29, 2016 by IndigoAjah

[CaptainRyan]

I think you're severely underestimating the power of an industrial economy. The German army in WWI (fairly similar to the basin in tech and size, as far as I can tell) fielded an army of 13 million people for four years. Alethkar's 100,000 is impressive by pre-industrial standards, but is a fraction of what a 20th century economy can field in cases of total war.

 

Good point, I did not realize the scale WWI level tech was able to accomplish.

 

Building on your point, another reason the Alethi army was as self-sustaining as they were for 6 years is because they were encamped in a place where gemhearts (soul-casting fuel) was readily available. If they had to carry or import gemhearts/foodstuffs then the advantage of soulcasters would be severely handicapped.

 

Current Roshar/Alethkar vs Era 2 Scadrial/Elendel Basin is just not a fair match-up.

[jasenerd]

I was under the impression that copper spikes the capacity for memory and intelligence out of a victim - as part of a kandra Blessing.  Not something specific.  

 

I might be mistaken, but if it was just the capacity for memory, then I feel it would just be labeled as 'intelligence'. Do remember that spikes can do a lot of different things depending on where they are inserted into the host and stolen from the, "Willing", participant. I have no problem with Memories being a thing that can be stolen. On the other hand, I have no problem with being wrong either. So eh..

 

There is also to take in to account is the magic systems "fuel" source. WoB show that a misting/mistborn can burn any metal from any planet as long as it has the right allomantic composition. It just acts like a gateway to harmony. So there is nothing stopping Scadrialians from using their abilities on Roshar. However, have a Rosharan army do an extended battle on Scadrial and suddenly all the radiants run out of juice. Even on Roshar, the Radiants would be dependent on the high storms to fuel up and need to ration stormlight.  

 

More interesting point: Which planet would the energy for allomancy remain invested on? If it returns to Scadrial, then no problem, but I think it would be neat to have it 'stuck' on roshar. At least for a while, unless Harmony specifically takes it back to Scadrial.

[Voidus]

Era 2 Scadrial massively outmatches Roshar (as it stands now) in terms of technology and economy. 

Roshar massively outmatches Scadrial in terms of military theory, experience, tactics and training. Scadrial had 1000 years of suppression under TLR, then 300+ years of peace, time Roshar has spent at war. 

 

Nevertheless, technology is just a huge advantage. Would Scadrial win in a pitched battle? Almost certainly. Would they win in a defensive war on Scadrian soil? Without a doubt. 

 

However, I can't help but see this as a Vietnam war style situation. The Basin is politically fractured. The Scadrians would be undeniably the aggressors. Scadrian mass media is a thing (with newspapers/etc.). Scadrial doesn't have the history or motivation for the glory of the Empire and Imperialism, nor the sense of local conflict and a mad rush for resources that motivated the Europeans in their imperialist endeavors in the 19th century. 

 

 

Would Scadrial win the battles? Yes. But with significant casualties; enough to discourage people back home. 

 

Would they win the war? Only with sufficient motivation, which frankly, they don't have. They have only a tenuous connection to their slave class of some 300 years ago - Scadrian peacelovers would certainly point out that Rosharin slavery could easily be abolished by diplomacy and importing technology, leaving the Scadrian's without sufficient motivation for war, let alone the Total War of WWI/WWII.

 

 

A much more interesting war, however, would be The Final Empire vs. a newly unified Alethkar under Gavilar. That would be much better balanced and more interesting conflict. 

I think you're underestimating Scadrials military tactics a bit there. To start with as I mentioned earlier Roshars military tactics are worse than useless against Scadrial, Scadrial will be fighting in a way completely unfamiliar to Roshar, one of the strategies we know of from Alethi armies is to have a Shardbearer charge in at the fore and lay waste, demoralizing the enemy.

That is going to backfire tremendously against an army equipped primarily with firearms, the Shardbearer will collapse before they kill a single person which will end up demoralizing the Rosharans instead.

But more importantly TLR kept a standing army, Vin and Elend had another army, plenty of nobles will have studied military tactics and Sazed left behind metalminds which certainly had some information in them. Plus they have military tactics that Roshar can't have, knowledge of how to deploy firearms and advanced weaponry. Roshar might be more skilled at how to deal with Shardbearers or Parshendi but Scadrial has neither, they fight in a completely unfamiliar way and have magic that Rosharans couldn't dream of.

[Erunion]

I think you're underestimating Scadrials military tactics a bit there. To start with as I mentioned earlier Roshars military tactics are worse than useless against Scadrial, Scadrial will be fighting in a way completely unfamiliar to Roshar, one of the strategies we know of from Alethi armies is to have a Shardbearer charge in at the fore and lay waste, demoralizing the enemy.

That is going to backfire tremendously against an army equipped primarily with firearms, the Shardbearer will collapse before they kill a single person which will end up demoralizing the Rosharans instead.

But more importantly TLR kept a standing army, Vin and Elend had another army, plenty of nobles will have studied military tactics and Sazed left behind metalminds which certainly had some information in them. Plus they have military tactics that Roshar can't have, knowledge of how to deploy firearms and advanced weaponry. Roshar might be more skilled at how to deal with Shardbearers or Parshendi but Scadrial has neither, they fight in a completely unfamiliar way and have magic that Rosharans couldn't dream of.

 

All valid points, and filed under 'superiour technology' and 'why they'll probably win the pitched battles'.

 

The main difference, however, is that Roshar has a military culture and experience. These are people used to warfare, used to losing sons, brothers, husbands, fathers to the rigors of war. Soldiers who have seen death, and commanders who have known what it's like to have a battle plan fall apart, but know how to salvage the plan anyway. 

 

What Roshar has, and Scadrial lacks, is experience, and more crucially, experienced officers. And in warfare, that makes an incredible difference. 

The Elendel basin completely lacks military experience and emotional hardening. So they WILL suffer casualties, and minor defeats. They WILL have significant loss of life and materiel. They'll win all the big battles for sure, but with the casualties piling up, and with progress much slower than expected or forecast, the Elendel public would likely very rapidly lose the motivation to pursue an offensive war. 

 

So while Scadrial would 'win' the war, I doubt they'd successfully conquer Roshar unless they had incredible motivation, which is lacking in the proposed scenario. 

[Voidus]

Well if we're arguing the diplomacy as well then Scadrial wins even more, they have an even longer history of politics, they have the overwhelming leverage in their military power and what they can offer and they also have people experienced in magical emotional manipulation.

Roshar would lose this battle whether it's at the negotiating table or on the field.

[Erunion]

I don't think I disagree with you: Scadrial will win.

But I don't think Scadrial will win handily, nor will they conquer: the sociopolitical situation in the basin is too unstable to support a long war effort.

I suspect that Scadrial would win a few major victories, suffer some setbacks and get bogged down in a long war of conquest. At that point, they'd likely do one of two things:

Ally themselves with local nations, supplying them with arms/information and fighting a war on the backs of a locally raised army (the way the British did in India and the Spanish did in Central America).

Or, more likely, they'd win key victories, then quickly negotiate favourable peace terms (political changes, imbalanced trade deals, that kind of thing).

What I'm saying WOULDN'T work is a WW2 style invasion, where the Scadrians throw together a vast,professional industrial army and conquer Roshar piece by piece (as many of the other commentators are envisioning). The Scadrian people and society wouldn't be willing to support that style of conquest.

[Voidus]

Well the assumption in these kinds of fights is that the participants are willing, I mean realistically Scadrial has no reason to invade anyone, they have plentiful resources already in the basin and they're not exactly short on land either.

But I also think you're overestimating Roshar there, they'd break a long time before Scadrial would. Assuming any kind of significant Scadrian force landed on Roshar their overwhelming victories would quickly shatter Alethkar back into princedoms, and divided like that there'd really be very little bloodshed needed at all. In the face of an overwhelmingly stronger military force I doubt any of the princedoms would put up significant resistance at all.