Araris Valerian

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About Araris Valerian

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    Knight Ferrous

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    Male
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    Washington State
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    Brandon Sanderson
    Pokémon
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  1. But I make sure to post and contribute enough that people should be able to get reads on me. And I'm pretty good at responding when people ping me. I think I just have a reputation that far exceeds my actual tendencies.
  2. I'm going to switch my vote from Alvron to Straw. Inactivity/Lurking kills, you know.
  3. It takes all the fun out of the game to kill all the active players though. If you died, then Stick and I would be the two most active players left. When I'm in the top 2 most active players for a game, something has gone horribly wrong.
  4. Well, if was was an elim, I wouldn't kill you tonight.
  5. Well, we are at 15 players left, so 5 neutral, 4 elim and 6 village. One villager dies tonight, so that makes it 4 to 5. One mislynch and this game is over.
  6. @Clanky I didn't know how long the Night Turn was. So basically I didn't get around to sending the order in.
  7. Aralis sat on his chair. Or, he supposed, the memory of his chair. The memory of Tyrian Falls was strong in this place. Off in the distance, Aralis saw Rent digging a hole. Even with an endless amount of time, that man couldn't figure out how to extort people. Some things never changed. But last night something did change. A note found under his chair, and a strange object. He could choose to ignore it, but it would be a long time before the town woke up again. Maybe tonight he would see if he could beat some sense into a new group of folks. If worst came to worst, he would come back to his chair. I'll vote on Alvron. Any self-respecting Shadow would never allow themselves to get kicked in the face.
  8. Well, I'll switch my vote from Drake to Ecthelion. If he flips village, then I'll be suspicious of Dalinar next. If he flips elim, then I want to lynch Stick for sure.
  9. Well, based on the participation so far in the thread, it doesn't look like we ware going to get much discussion out of this cycle anyways. If things are still this quiet by tomorrow then I'll switch my vote on to Ecthelion, and hopefully things will get a little better once he's dead.
  10. I know why you are suspicious of Ecthelion. I want to know your thoughts on Drake and on me.
  11. Okay, for starters I would like to say that with Flash leading discussion, there would probably be a bandwagon on Ecthelion, and we wouldn't gain anything from the discussion today, just information from the lynch outcome. That's why I opened with a vote on Drake. I'm pretty sure I demonstrated with my vote switch last cycle that I thought lynching Ecthelion would be more useful than Joe, with plenty of time left in the cycle for the villagers voting on Joe to follow me. @The Flash Why does Ecthelion being a smoker make you more suspicious of him? There has been hardly any vote manipulation this game, and that sort of thing is way more useful for elims, since they can use it to win the game sooner. But if we need vote manips to control the lynch then the game is already over. Also, your call to lynch Ecthelion isn't productive for discussion. We have 48 hours. What are your thoughts on Drake, in more detail? I am suspicious of him because he both hasn't been brought up in discussion, and hasn't really participated himself. That is the perfect place for an eliminator to hide. Here's what I posted about him last cycle: Also, aside from me disagreeing with you about Ecthelion, why are you suspicious of me? @SeonidHow am I "casting doubt on Flash's methods?" I mean, I oppose a total bandwagon today, something you agree with. But I think anyone can see that he has been acting painfully village this whole game. @_Stick_ I am suspicious of you for a couple reasons, starting with the lynch on STINK that switched to Straw. You both pointed Straw out as a target and then were the first to vote on him. Then, last cycle, you voted on Joe, which doesn't really make sense for a villager to do. I mean, Seonid's argument about keeping the neutrals "neutral" was okay, except that they hadn't interfered with the game at this point anyways. But aside from that sort of approach, lynching a neutral is the same as no lynch at all, and the lynch is how we get information. PK is suspicious for the same reason, but he has been way too inactive to be worth focusing on.
  12. Well, my top suspicions are Drake and Stick. I was leaning elim on Dalinar too, but his post encouraging mass votes on Ecthelion seemed really village last cycle. If Ecthelion flips elim, that would make me more suspicious of Stick and PK. I think since we spent an entire cycle of discussion around Ecthelion last cycle, it would be somewhat worth it to lynch him. But my vote is going on Drake for now.
  13. I've come across a weird class of functions, where the overall growth is polynomial bounded above and below, but there is some periodic behavior. One example is the following sequence of numbers: 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 13, 17, 21, 26, 31, 37, 43. The 1st, 3rd, 5th, and so forth entries correspond to the function x^2+1, if x=1 corresponds to the value 2. The other entries correspond to x^2+x+1, if we match x=1 to the entry valued 3. Has anyone seen functions/sequences like this before? I'm trying to prove that certain sequences always have this sort of periodic polynomial behavior, but I haven't seen these things before, which is making it hard to prove that an infinite set of functions falls into this category.
  14. I didn't defend any rioters. I just pointed out that pursuing a lynch based on roles is silly in a game like this, designed to be pretty straightforward. I honestly don't think Ecthelion is an eliminator. But other people do, and to counter the neutrals, we needed to vote together. Between Flash and BR though, I'm more confident that Flash is a villager. But regardless, I have stronger elim reads on Drake and Stick than on BR. I think this lynch is just like all the other ones; we targeted a villager, so nobody really comes to their defense, and the elims get to sit back and not participate. Edit: So I guess a straightforward answer to your question Joe, is that the result of this lynch won't really change my reads on Flash and BR, particularly to the extent that I would vote on them in the next couple of cycles.
  15. @cloudjumper, your vote tally is off. I'm currently voting for Ecthelion, not Drake. And honestly, I think people are making a rather big deal about something that isn't really that big of a deal. It definitely helps the village to hold off on killing neutrals, but the amount that it helps isn't too much. The damage I was worried about has already been done; there has been and likely won't be any productive lynch discussion as a result of the lynch on Joe.