Elenion

I agree that the Experience and Ash deaths were out of our control, and that gave the elims basically a free kill each round, but I don't think we need to change the rules to accommodate that. We just need to change our strategies, not giving up free lynches to the elims. Overall this game was really fun and if I have another free Saturday in the future I'd consider joining another!

Public disclosure: I am roleblocking Araris tonight, so if there's no elim kill, go after him.

It's the Contribution Crusade, which advocates voting on players who are inactive in order to encourage activity. I proposed that the elims kill the inactive players instead, so we don't have to waste our votes. Edit: I got double ninja'd XD

Looks like the elims messed up. I'm expecting 3 elims for a game this size, according to the square-root rule, and since the elims double-killed Ash we have one more chance to catch an elim before the game is over. Araris previously criticized me for talking about Ly/Lo, but anyone looking ahead could see the signs. Now let's look at why the elims killed Ash. I, for one, was viewing Ash as likely village, and it seems like the elims agreed with my logic. Yet again, I don't think it was a good choice for Ash to wager so many votes, because it gives the elims effectively a free kill by creating a mislynch, but it seems the elims bungled the kill and gave us another chance. Here are my reads so far, copied from yesterday: Top Suspicions: Striker, Araris, Xino Middle to slightly suspicious: Flamingo, Mat Village: Kas I'm williing to join a vote train on any of my top 3 suspicions, but I guess I'll start with Xino because that seems to be where the votes are falling. @xinoehp512 I raise you at least a reason not to vote on me: if nearly half of the living players find it a good idea to vote on me, that means that the eliminators must be OK with me dying. What are the chances that every single surviving villager concurs that I'm an elim? Not likely - the elims want me mislynched in order to win the game.

There's probably nothing that I can do to stop my impending lynch, unless some madlad put a million votes on themself, but I'd like to put down my suspicions before I go. Even if it is Ly/Lo this cycle, I want them recorded so I can see how right/wrong I was. Top Suspicions: Striker, Araris, Xino Middle to slightly suspicious: Flamingo, Mat Village: Kas, Ash

You do whatever you need to, I'll tell my fellow elims to give you a pass Well, it looks like Ash didn't put in the elim kill last cycle, but I am bummed that Experience voted so much on Cuddles. It basically ensured Experience's death by lynch, which in effect gave the elims a free turn to kill someone. I don't think that that was a very smart thing to do, tactically speaking, but what's done is done Let's extend that logic. I doubt the elims would vote more than 4 for a single item, given that it's practically suicide unless someone else does the same, and suicide from the elims is a definite no-go. Given that logic, then both Ash and Kas read village to me. I already had a village read on Ash, so that's nothing new, but Kas is. Too bad Kas is taking a step back from the game. That leaves Mat, Araris, Xino, Striker, and Flamingo. I would be willing to bet that at least 2 of that group are elims. Of those, Araris and Striker already have votes, so I think I'm going to double down on Striker. This may be our last chance to win the game: if there are 3 elims out there there will be only 3 villagers left if we mislynch, so I would really like to hear more discussion from the players still remaining.

If I were e/e with Ash, I wouldn't have mentioned them so obviously in my post. I could see a world in which one of us is an elim, but not both.

I need to put forward a credible alternative to myself for the lynch, so I'm going to vote Experience with Ash. I'm reading slightly village on Ash, so I'm fine voting with them, and any lynch is better than lynching me, seeing as I'm one of the few players doing analysis in this game.

On the topic of votes, I'm not sure whether we should concentrate our votes on one person or whether we should spread out. If we spread out, we increase the chances of voting on an elim, but we give greater weight to the votes that we bet to get items. Do y'all think the strategy that the elims are using is to get a ton of items or get none? If we assume 3 elims, 1 of them has to use their action for the elim kill, so that only leaves 2 actions to go. Most of the items are more useful for the village, like roleblocks which can stop the elim kill and PMs which help disseminate information. So I'm thinking that the elims won't go for items, and as such we need to concentrate our votes on 1 or 2 players in order to avoid lynching players who risked a lot of votes in order to get items.

@xinoehp512 Here's a haiku: 2 quick votes on me I don't want to be mislynched Somebody help, please? Please vote on Mat for me.

Maybe because I didn't I'd say there's plenty to be analyzed from the elims' kill choice. Right now my leading theory is that the elims don't have another super experienced player, because if they did and they killed Aman, then that would leave their super experienced player alone and people might start questioning why. I'm not 100% sure if I'm barking up the right tree, but if I am, then I'm leaning slightly village on Araris and Kasimir.

I'm bummed at the elims' decision to kill Aman. It may be a while since I've played, but back when I did, good players like Aman always tended to die early. I was hoping he'd be able to stick around into the late game.

Alright gents, finalize your votes! I'm keeping mine on Mat, although I'm ok if I don't see Mat lynched; my read isn't that strong.

I no longer have my vote on Striker, I changed it to Matrim's Dice.

And now I see Aman's post reading either Matrim's or me as elim. I didn't vote on Matrim's for distancing, because I didn't see Aman's post until after I voted.