Magestar

You know what, your argument seems very solid to me. I agree. Orlok.

Araris is definitely evil.

Well storms. I give up. I'm just done. ...What? I've done things. Maybe not as intense as I was in LG67, but I have neither as much time as I did in LG67, nor the incentive provided by boxings. I've been fairly active, and I've given reads and stuff. I've done some analysis. I was obviously wrong about TJ, but I tried. I probably won't be as active as I was in LG67 again, at least without another incentive like boxings. I'd be willing to lynch Pyro or Araris over myself. I'm only mildly suspicious of Araris. Pyro feels like they're being too quiet to be an Elim, unless they're trying something different. I could go either way there, personally. Orlok it's hard to tell, since he spent the first half of the game doing that thing for Wilson, and spent the second half being really quiet. I wouldn't be surprised if Orlok is an Elim, but I don't see anything specific to suggest it. I'll throw a vote on Araris for now. I'm feeling good vibes from Matrim, and since TJ was my big suspicion and he flipped village, I'm not sure what else to go on. I'm actually less sure of Matrim's village-ness now, since I was basing a lot of that off his interactions with TJ, who I thought was Elim. I guess this is what I get for putting too much stock in one suspicion.

So, here are some more reads of mine. I looked over these people's posts, and I was going to provide some explanation for my reasoning behind these reads, but after starting to do so, I realized that the majority of my reasoning boiled down to "they did this thing and it didn't seem like an Elim would do that" or vice versa but I really have no solid reasoning because all we've done this game is sort of noncommittally lynched villagers. Whee. Mild Elim: Lord Silberfarben Truth Araris Mild Village: Ilwei Devotary Matrim Mint Hmm. I suppose you're right. I must have messed up my vote count when looking over this lynch. And that takes my suspicion of TJ back to being just a bad gut read. -sigh- I don't know what it is but I'm having some trouble reading people this game. I don't know if it's because everyone's been as confused as I am, or because of the amount of inactivity, or if it's something else. I think to some extent I'm also feeling less motivated to put in the effort this game than I was in LG67. That might just be because I've recently had more hours working than I did in LG67. Regardless, with TJ's vote manipulation, there's basically no way he gets lynched today. I'm going to leave my vote there because frankly at this point I can't be bothered. I'm not in a terribly good mood because of IRL things. If I'm feeling better later I might put some more effort into posting but I don't think I'll probably post again this cycle.

...I feel like I’ve explained it pretty thoroughly. I’m at work at the moment so I can’t write up anything long. . When I get back I’ll try to write up a post summarizing my suspicion of TJ and listing some of my other reads.

I just don't have any better options. Even you, voting on me, are only doing so because I'm voting on you. In your post just prior to the one in which you vote on me, you even said you had a village read on me. I mean, no, a bus doesn't have to be all one way. I'm saying that the you and Striker, as Elims, were trying to protect the Elim KR. What do you mean the Elims would not even allow votes to gather? Like you said, everyone else who voted on Striker turned up village. How could they control that? Idk about Matrim. I've got a pretty village read on them, but at this point IDK. I don't think you have hundreds of reasons for your innocence. The only one that really convinced me earlier was that it didn't make sense for Striker to vote on you - but now I'm starting to think that you being an Elim is the only thing that makes sense. That would "clear" you, and Striker would have known you'd survive, because of your vote canceling. You've also switched sides on a bunch of things a lot this game. D1, you trusted Ventyl, D2, you pushed for their lynch. Same with Gears. Now with me. Your tone has been off all game to me, and you haven't really stuck to your opinions. That reads Elim to me. Even Gears noticed it, right before they died. The only other lynch that's happening right now is Lahilt, because they're "Dodging votes and sliding under the radar." I just don't see it. Who else should I vote on? Matrim, Mint, or Devotary, people who I feel are pretty village? Kynedath, Orlok, Zillah, or Xino, who are inactive? I'm leaning village on Ilwei, and Shane, Silb, Pyro, and Truth have all been pretty quiet, to the extent I don't have a read on any of them. That leaves you, who I've been suspicious of all game, and Araris, who I can't get a read on. To me, you're the obvious choice. Call it tunneling if you want to, but I don't see a better option. Someone else check me if I'm being ridiculous. @Matrim's Dice, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Frozen Mint, am I crazy? I feel like this makes sense.

That just means that there's another Elim who's active enough to submit kills. The Elim KR should never be the one submitting kills? I'm not sure that this is much of a defense. Although regardless of whether you're an Elim or not, you're right in that this does mean that one of the active or at least semi-active players is an Elim, which is good news for us. The problem is it's also entirely possible to be active enough to submit kills and still not post in the thread very much. The problem with this is that Striker would have survived if he voted on Ventyl. Village!TJ, Elim!Striker, Striker votes on Ventyl and TJ has no reason to put his vote on Striker. Safest option. The obvious option, even. At that point, Ventyl would have had four votes and Striker and TJ would have both had three, and TJ would removed the votes off of himself anyway, so he had no reason to worry. Ventyl had even almost admitted to being a KR at that point, right? So the Elims could have had an KR down and saved a Elim. Plus, as you say, it's the most enjoyable option for Striker. What happened makes no sense. With Elim!Striker, Elim!TJ, at least we can see that it's some kind of bus. TJ and Striker are up for the lynch, and Striker doesn't think he'll survive many more cycles with this much suspicion on him, especially if he's involved in a village lynch D1. So they set up a bus to "basically clear" a rather powerful Elim KR, one with two vote manipulations. You want that Elim to survive as long as possible. Still a little odd, but it makes more sense to me than Village!TJ. I'm going to put my vote on TJ Shade. I think they've survived too long on the weirdness of the Striker lynch. I see no reason why TJ can't, or isn't likely to be an Elim, and I've given my reasoning before as to why I'm suspicious of them before. Those suspicions haven't really diminished, and at this point I don't see a lot of better options. Plus it's the only way I can reconcile the lynch in my mind. I should have thought about that before. I knew something was bugging me about it. If this doesn't pan out, I've got nothing. The Elims are probably hiding among the inactives - Kynedath, Orlok, Xino, Zillah, and maybe a few partial actives? Lahilt, Truthwatcher, etc? Idk. Or they're just really good at hiding and I suck. >.> Hey. I do this all the time.

Well, I've got nothing. I'm fairly happy with the discussion we had last cycle, given that we'd already basically decided to lynch Gears. I'll look over that and probably write something up on it tomorrow. I'll try to give some reads and lynch options. I've said this before, but there's not a lot else for me to go on. I'm not suspicious of El, like other people seem to be, Matrim I've got a village read on, Gears just died, Pyro just started being more active, Araris is neutral, and almost everyone else has been quiet enough that I haven't been able to get much of a read on them. Maybe that's my fault. I also think this might be a bit of a bad habit of mine, although I usually hide it a little better. I spent most of LG66 being suspicious of Ashbringer without much to go on besides my gut reads. Idk.

So you think that El is an Elim? Why?

I... guess I forgot to red out the text? Thanks for catching that lol. Gears. I'm sorry. I've just got so little else to go on. Maybe lead might be a little strong - push might be better? Idk. I'm also realizing that "leading multiple mislynches" might be a little strong, since there have actually only been two lynches since the D1 Striker lynch. I definitely agree that it feels like the endgame, but given typical Elim distributions, we still have several cycles left before the Elims win. Using the square root or 20% distributions, we've got roughly 5 Elims either way, maybe less with a strong Elim base and a weaker Village, or more with weaker Elims and a stronger village. I'd say at most there were 6 Elims with 24 players total, which would mean at most five left, which would mean we have at least 4 more cycles till the Elims win. We're not in a terrible spot - the worst thing right now is inactivity, which seems to be slowly getting better? I think we've still got a shot. Cool, cool. I've seen a couple people say this now. You and... Devotary, I think? I'd love to see some discussion of this, maybe flesh it out a bit. Frankly any discussion about someone who's not Gears or TJ would be good IMO.

Still slightly suspicious of TJ. The repeatedly leading mislynches only to apologize and then swear to follow other people's lynches seems kinda suspicious to me. It's a good way for an Elim to get villagers killed before fading into the background a bit. I'm also suspicious of Gears but I'm a little concerned by the almost total lack of opposition this lynch is seeing. That, combined with their earlier involvement with Striker, makes me question whether or not they're an Elim. However, given the number of inactives, it's entirely possible that most of the Elim team is inactive, and we're just kind of failing as a village. I'll throw a vote on Gears for now. The only person I'm really trusting at the moment is Matrim. We haven't had enough Elim lynches at this point for me to clear anyone, and the format of this game makes it difficult for me to trust anyone. Even my village read on Matrim and El are just gut reads, and El's not been active enough recently for it to be a useful read. I've looked over most of the more active players in the game a couple times now, and I haven't found anything conclusive or even terribly useful. I do think it's interesting that after apparently getting lucky C1, we haven't really gotten anywhere with our lynches. I can't help but wonder if killing an Elim C1 is actually bad for the village, since it seems to lead to a lot of false reads surrounding the Elim - I think it might have something to do with the uncertainty surrounding the D1 lynch. Although I suppose it is only D4. It feels like it's been longer for some reason. The Ventyl focus might also have been part of the problem. Either way, I find it kind of strange how little I'm finding to work with as far as reads go.

Yeah, this is what's concerning me. Araris already pointed out how many of our players are either completely or nearly inactive, and with the prominent players (Gears, TJ, Pyro, maybe Araris) controlling the lynch RN, it's starting to be a little worrying. I'm most concerned about TJ and Gears at the moment. I'm going to put my vote on Gears for now. This cycle ends in a few hours, correct?

Huh. So, I'm assuming we don't have any PM roles at this point. Either that, or they're inactive, which I guess isn't all that unlikely. So, I promised analysis, and here it is. I've looked into Araris, Elbereth and Gears since they're the first three moderately active players on the list. I unfortunately don't have any real suspicions going into this besides TJ and a mild suspicion of Gears. I think having an Elim lynched D1 somehow threw me off a bit. Anyway, here goes nothing. Araris - Araris started the game by stab voting Ventyl. Ventyl's a confirmed villager now, but I don't think that says much one way or the other about Araris' alignment. He's been fairly helpful this game, although not quite as active as he was in LG66, IIRC. That might just be a function of this game overall being less active than LG66. It's interesting to note that Araris basically didn't interact with Striker at all while he was alive, other than to say he was ok with the Striker lynch and that Sart and Striker were unlikely to both be Elims which... well, he was right, and again I'm not entirely sure if that's indicative of anything. Araris has given a lot of reads this game, something which I think isn't his usual playstyle as an Elim. I've only played with him once recently when he was a non-village role, but in that game he largely refrained from giving reads, and mostly voted without providing much reasoning. That gives me a hesitant village lean on him right off the bat - plus, his reads by and large have made sense to me. I've agreed with a few of them. This last post of his kind of read as filler to me, and his tone seemed a bit off to me this game... overall, I'd say slight slight village lean, if only because of the last point I made about his reads. Elbereth - Elbereth has consistently given useful information to the village and promoted discussion in all of her posts. She doesn't have a lot of posts (Thank God, frankly this post is already going to be ridiculously long.) but after going through all of them I have a pretty solid village read on her. Her interactions with Striker specifically don't seem like they're on the same team - it's a lot of small and meaningless stuff, but El clarified a few things to Striker in-thread in a way that doesn't seem like distancing and makes more sense to do in a doc if they're both Elims. Her voting patterns read pretty village to me. She read Striker as mild village towards the beginning of the cycle, but frankly so did TJ and a number of other people. This doesn't mean she's certainly not an Elim, but I don't think it's super indicative. I wasn't suspicious of Striker C1. Knowing El, it's entirely possible she's an Elim and just fooling me, but I'm getting village vibes from her. If her posts were only asking questions and provoking discussion, I'd be more inclined to think she's an Elim, but she also gave reads and opinions. I'd love to hear more from her, actually. @Elbereth. - Gears Gears' first several posts of the game were role analysis. Normally I'd say this sort of behavior leans more Elim, but supposedly he wrote up the first one of these bits of analysis before the game began, so I don't really feel like they're terribly alignment indicative. Most of his early posts are either RP or some form of game analysis, with one request for El to explain her vote on TJ, which didn't have any reasoning attached to it. He does, however, note that he has nothing against lynching TJ. These posts are all very safe, but not giving me any more than a minor suspicious vibe. A lot of that could be just because Gears' style of posts are a little different from what I'm used to. Notes on Gears' vote patterns - he doesn't seem to be in favor of voting early and often, as many people are. I don't think that's alignment indicative either. His first vote of the game was for El on El's advice, so I'm not really sure what to make of that. He later removes that vote because he didn't really suspect El that much? Just a little odd. Gears also didn't end up having a vote at the end of D1. He really kind of led the lynch on Ventyl, who turned village... I'm not sure what to make of that. Gear's interactions with Striker - not particularly indicative of anything. There was a little bit of tension between the two of them, but not anything big enough that it couldn't have been early distancing. I'm also noticing that Gears - and a number of other people - had Ventyl as a very strong village read early in the game? I'm just becoming more and more confused about why Ventyl was lynched. It's also interesting that Gears went from not trusting TJ and thinking they were suspicious, to leaning on TJ's analysis as reasoning for lynching Ventyl. This post is interesting me. The scenario he suggests keeps Gears alive for quite a while, and also, in his scenario, gets rid of two villagers before even having a lynch on him. I also feel like a lot of Gears' posts about why we should trust them descend rather rapidly into IKYK territory, which bothers me a little. Final notes - mild Elim read on Gears. Nothing conclusive, just that their posts seem a little off and nothing that would make me think they're village - and none of their defenses for themselves - seem like much more than IKYKs. Part of the problem is that a lot of his defenses are "an Elim wouldn't do what I did" which seems like something an Elim would say. I don't know if that makes sense, but it's giving me bad vibes. Other notes... I think it's interesting that several players in the early phases of the game - Matrim and TJ specifically, and a couple others in passing - mentioned that it's hard to read Ventyl because of their playstyle and then that's basically what Ventyl ended up getting lynched for. I think at this point it's safe we also don't have any village kill roles, as well as any PM roles? As I'm writing it down that sounds far more unlikely. My guess is they're probably all just inactive, which is kind of sad. Or we have some very cautious kill roles. I also took a look at how Striker's posts really quick, and I'm marginally less suspicious of TJ because of how Striker interacted with him. That's fine. Frankly I think I'll enjoy having regular Orlok around over Locke the Tormented. I'll throw a vote on Silb for now, because while looking over the thread I realized that most (and I think all?) of their posts are not game related, and I think they've been active enough in on the shard to have time to contribute something. This post took me way to long to write up. It's also kind of jumbled and I'm pretty sure I somehow lost parts of it while writing it, but I'm too tired to check over it. So here it is! Discuss! Bring some more activity to this overly quiet thread. I mean, it's day three. We can do better than one page.

I think that it might be good next cycle to try and broaden the scope of potential lynch suspects. We do have something to work with - Ventyl flipping village still let's us do analysis. It's too bad everyone was so focused on Ventyl, but it's not all bad. And now I'll quickly respond to TJ. Thanks. I'll respond to this pretty briefly since I'd rather not focus to heavily on it during the night cycle. Ah. I must have somehow missed the prior post? Sorry about that. I'm not sure how Elbereth's vote is defined is all that relevant. I still think what you said was slightly odd. "I've been useful to the village in the past" just sounds off to me. I guess. I was a little concerned by how much you tunneled on Ventyl and now they've flipped village... Oddly though, I'm wondering if that's a point in your favor. I don't think that an Elim would tunnel as hard as you did on someone who they know is village. Ventyl said as much. The problem there is I think that both you and Gears are good enough to know that, and use it to your advantage. But from there it devolved into IKYK territory, which is problematic for a number of reasons. I think everyone brushed it off because it wasn't that big a deal. Like I said earlier, I still don't really understand why we lynched Striker. I mean, you later asked a similar question about mechanics, IIRC. Mechanics questions aren't alignment indicative in my mind. I get Sart's suspicion of Striker, I guess. Distracting the thread from focusing on the Elims is why I was suspicious of Ash in LG66 - although I'll note Ash was village at the time. But mechanics questions don't make me suspicious. I think this is actually the best piece of evidence in your favor, especially now that Ventyl flipped village. I don't understand why Striker would have voted for you if you were also an Elim. I... also don't understand why Striker voted for Ventyl, but perhaps that's a mystery I won't be able to unravel till the end of the game. I actually only had time to get to you. I said I was going to do analysis on other players, I just haven't gotten around to it yet. I've been busier than I anticipated, which I'm pretty sure I've said before. But maybe I was tunneling a little bit. It's possible I was trying to find evidence to fit my reads rather than the other way around. Anyway, I'm still suspicious of you, but it's mostly just a gut read based on tone and a few odd things at this point. I'll work on some analysis this cycle and put forth some lynch options of my own in the next day cycle.

Dang TJ. That's rather a lot to respond to, with not a lot of time left in the day. I'll respond to it in the night cycle. I'm about to get off of work so I should have plenty of time.

The TJ lynch obviously isn’t going anywhere. Hmm. I’m checking in from work on my phone and don’t have time to really do any analysis. I’m not terribly suspicious of Ventyl, but I think their lynch will also give us the most information. All I have on Gears is their odd tone. I have no idea why Matrim is even up for the lynch. I guess of the three, the arguments for Ventyl being lynched are probably the best, and a tie sounds good to me.

Ok, so I just went over TJ's posts, since I've got my vote on him at the moment. I hope to do the same thing with Ventyl and Gears, then with some of the less-focused-on players, to get some more options out there. Here's what I've got so far. In TJ's very first post of the game, he responds to El's poke vote on him by saying he shouldn't be lynched because he's been useful to the village in the past when he's been village. Kind of a weird thing to say. I guess it makes sense to defend yourself, but he responded rather thoroughly to what amounted to nothing more than a poke vote. He's also swapped around a bit on the Ventyl lynch; at first, he agreed with my position that Ventyl's actions wouldn't make a lot of sense for an Elim: Now, obviously, he's changed positions. This was interesting to me. This almost looks like an attempt at distancing with Striker. I said D1 that TJ's reasoning for being suspicious of Striker didn't make a lot of sense to me; asking an easy question and having Striker answer it would be a super easy to do some distancing and make both of them look better to the village, IMO. I did notice that TJ mentioned when he claimed that he claimed even though he knew it would make him look suspicious, because he couldn't exactly keep quiet as a village KR about to die... that in particular is more of a village thing to say, IMO. But it's also just good cover. I'm also realizing that the thought process people are applying to Ventyl - that they let Striker get lynched to protect an Elim KR - could be applied to TJ as well, who's basically confirmed as a KR with his vote shenanigans. TJ also expressed some confusion with my suspicions of him early D1, in a way which didn't make a lot of sense. It seemed like he was trying to say I looked suspicious for expressing suspicion on him this game, and he mentioned something happening in LG66 which I'm fairly certain didn't happen. In conclusion, I think he was acting frantic and odd before he was even really up for lynch. I think some of his votes seemed really flimsy, and some seemed like an Elim trying to drum up a lynch. I think there's reasonable evidence for my suspicion of him. Alright now for some responses. This... actually makes a lot of sense. I can see this being a reasonable thought process for a villager. My only thing is that my paranoid half is feeling like this explanation doesn't sound like Ventyl to me. Part of me is feeling like it could be an Elim teammate giving instructions trying to do damage control... That might be too paranoid. I don't want to cast aspersions on Ventyl's abilities. Eh. I think this actually makes a lot of sense. I could see myself doing this as an Elim. It's fairly simple and it's a really good way to try and pocket a villager (is that how you use "pocket"? Last game was the first time I've seen it used. ) And that's probably all I'll be able to do this cycle. I've just learned that I have a morning shift tomorrow so I won't be back home till after the cycle ends. -sigh-

@Straw could I get a vote count?

Sure, but you're assuming Ventyl - or anyone, for that matter - had the foresight to anticipate the fact that roleclaiming would lead to this exact situation. I personally wouldn't have expected it to get this out of hand. To use Matrim's example, we could have shrugged off Ventyl's claim. Or, for other reasons, Ventyl could just not have been up for the lynch. I think saying Ventyl "set up" this situation might be going a little far.

I think you may be overestimating both how easy it would be to avoid the situation and Ventyl’s ability to avoid it.

Sorry I haven't gotten around to posting yet; my family sprung a trip to my grandparents on me at the last minute. I wrote most of this post this morning and didn't have time to send it. >.> Since I don't have much time, I'm just post some quick thoughts on the cycle so far. This is the best thing I've read all day. Thank you for lightening the mood a bit. Strong disagree. You pseudo-claimed pretty early D1 after a lynch started building on you to protect yourself. Ventyl did it semi-randomly, which seems like it's basically their playstyle at this point. I'm not super trusting of you because I think it's less normal for you to claim than it is for Ventyl, who apparently does this sort of stuff all the time. Furthermore, I strongly doubt elim!Ventyl would continue acting the way they have. I feel like their actions are super odd for an Elim. I'm surprised more people haven't considered this. no I didn't consider it either shush. Frankly, it makes a lot more sense than a lot of the other theories flying around. In defense of Ventyl, I also thought that squiring took two charges of stormlight. It's possible the base rules read that way if you're not paying terribly close attention, which I wasn't, and didn't read the clarifications, which I didn't. I'm kind of suspicious of how closely Gears and TJ are acting together. I don't have time to look but does anyone know if TJ has any experience being an Elim? If not, that could pretty easily explain his frantic behavior, IMO. Other things... I'm not terribly suspicious of Elbereth? I don't know why Orlok is, so I don't feel like I can comment. Her actions seem village, but I'm fairly sure she could fake that pretty easily. I don't like how Gears is phrasing things - using "we" when referring to things they want done, so it seems like they're speaking for the village, and the general vibe of them giving permission for us to do things. It just seems... off? I don't know. I'm a little worried that none of the main three up for discussion are Elims. I've already made my thoughts clear on Ventyl; I'm starting to think Gears is tunneling too hard for an Elim, and I'm not sure about TJ. Still, I think TJ is the most suspicious of the three. I'll throw a vote on TJ Shade for now. I'm surprised there aren't any on him yet. I'll be back before the end of the cycle with hopefully some actual game analysis. >.>

Well, here's the thing. I'm not suspicious of you just for your vote on Ash. Your vote on Striker doesn't clear you because not only was it unnecessary it also came really late in the cycle, after you also tried to get Ventyl lynched over Striker. And your burning two charges to save yourself is also pretty NAI. Role-claiming as self-protection is almost more an Elim move... but even ignoring all that, I'm still suspicious of you for your tone. The tone of your posts just seems a little frantic, which is weird to me. You never seemed frantic when you were a villager, and I'm pretty sure someone else confirmed that this tone seems off for you, so I know it's not just me. Yeah. This whole lynch was weird. I don't know if I've said this already, but I still think the Striker lynch was weird. I'm glad we got an Elim, but the reasons for voting for them still confuse me. I mean, look - That's just kind of a silly lynch. Three out of four votes because they didn't want TJ to die. It's weird. Right off the bat this sort of voting reads bad. The thing is, Striker's vote also doesn't make any sense. I feel like in LG67, I didn't understand the Elim voting patterns either. Sometimes Elims do sub-optimal things? IDK. I just don't know. This is probably the only post I'll make till the end of the cycle. I'll see you guys next day cycle.

Well. Wow. That was lucky. I still don't think that lynch made any sense, but D1 lynches rarely do, I suppose. I feel similarly. I just did a skim of the cycle, but from what I could tell, the TJ lynch and the Striker lynch sprung up largely separately. The lynch on Ventyl also sprang up pretty quickly. I largely put my vote on Ventyl to see what TJ would do, and if they'd follow their suspicions or self-preservation... I'd probably be more suspicious of TJ if they hadn't thrown their vote on Striker at the end? But that could also have been bussing. It certainly wasn't necessary, given that TJ apparently could cancel two votes on themself. Idk. The likelihood of the village accidentally almost lynching two Elims seems low, but I wouldn't go as far as to say that TJ is soft-cleared. That's all I've got at the moment. Unfortunately I'll be busy all tomorrow so I won't be able to post much. I should be able to be fairly active next day cycle though, so I'll try to put together my thoughts and get some reads out then.

Well, at least in my opinion, the stuff Ventyl has done is a lot weirder than focusing on specific game mechanics... which is all I'm seeing for suspicion of Striker. Well, if Ventyl is in fact an Elim, a large number of Elim KR could indicate larger numbers of KR in the game overall. But that's purely speculation. I'm also skeptical of the idea that there's a large number of KR in the game, for similar reasons.

Could someone explain the reasoning behind the Striker lynch to me? I kinda get the TJ and Ventyl suspicions, but the Striker lynch I'm not really understanding. edit: And does anyone care about lynching Ventyl, or should I just move my vote.