Orlok Tsubodai

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Orlok Tsubodai last won the day on February 8

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About Orlok Tsubodai

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    High Prosecutor of Silverlight
  • Birthday 10/31/1997

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  1. I’m going to read through the thread shortly, and would note that the following comment is made without having considered this cycle’s events, but we’re not really going to lynch Straw in the early game again, are we? I might come back shortly to change my mind, but irrespective of the thread, we have a real tendency to misread and mislynch Straw in the early game. Albeit misattributed to Einstein, the quote “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results” seems to be to be relevant.
  2. I’m sorry, Monster, but I’m really not well at the moment. I’d hoped to get back to the game today, but it doesn’t look like I’m up to it. I’ll respond to everything as soon as I can.
  3. I’m both really quite unwell right now, and celebrating my election to a Society Committee position. I’ll be back online tomorrow, but am going to prioritise sleep tonight.
  4. I’m actually quite grateful to have been mentioned, Monster. I have been detached recently. I’m not terribly well at all - hence the lack of activity over the last 36 hours. I’ve been in PMs with El recently - she contacted me at the turn of the cycle. I retracted my vote at about 4am. I’d been awake at that point for nearly 22 hours. I didn’t have the energy to replace my vote, and had been trying to sleep for hours at that point. I’m about to go to a Society AGM, but should be online in a few hours, and will do my best to reengage.
  5. I maintain, Fifth, that we wouldn’t have got any more information from continuing to lynch you than that which we obtained. By changing it, we found Survival, and saw who people would vote for under pressure at the end of the cycle. I think that gives us plenty to analyse.
  6. I suspect that as players start dying in the Long Game, we’ll see an uptick in signups here. It may be worth extending signups once again to allow this, but I don’t think giving people two accounts is a viable solution.
  7. To clarify, as it appears I wasn’t clear earlier, my fear is that Cultivation gets used as a viciously effective weapon for manipulation. It will have a high degree of control over PMs that exist, and is likely to end up in the hands of an eliminator. My suggestion was that we reduce that very real risk by having villagers go for it, but I suppose that everyone being very clear that Cultivation (and indeed anyone put in a PM with you) may well be manipulating you serves enough of a purpose. I wasn’t advocating that Cultivation claim, and more pointing out that whilst most people will take two cycles to get a single PM, if they bother at all, Cultivation can get four in that timeframe, and so may well become known simply through people being in contact with them.
  8. @Steeldancer, you did see that Pyromancer claimed Survival? Given the above, I think he’s highly unlikely to be a villager. I’m of the view that it is likely that he remained Survival, but acknowledge that it’s possible that he’s Khriss or Hoid.
  9. I certainly don’t think so, and seriously hope not. I can’t find any posts I’ve made in all caps, and if it did somehow happen to exist, would not have been deliberate. In an effort to keep discussion going, your suspicions in light of Pyromancer’s claims, @Steeldancer? I’d also invite further thought from all players on the danger of releasing Cultivation, given its potential to become a very effective tool of manipulation. If we do decide to release it, I suggest we go for it in large numbers, to try to achieve as high as possible a chance to keep it from the eliminators. That said, I think it might even be counterproductive for a villager to hold, in that whoever holds it will be subjected to significant scrutiny and potentially a mislynch.
  10. @Fifth Scholar, Kas has a very good post somewhere from LG12 that El likes to reference. I’ll try to dig it out, but the important point it makes is that the threat of a lynch with intent to kill is what generates most of the information, as opposed to the lynch itself. Whilst your actions typically shouldn’t clear you (and indeed don’t beyond tonight), the timing of when you made them - just before you went to sleep, and as the US was going to sleep, cleared you to me. I don’t see you making a post like that without knowing that it would be highly unlikely that a lynch would shift off you. It was a gamble I don’t see an early stage eliminator team making, with the higher than normal risk, and the significant payoff of keeping you alive to give control over Shards. With that in mind, we’d already received all the information we could have got from actually following through and lynching you. Keeping the lynch on you removed it’s intent to kill anyone else, and so actually reduced information generation. We can see that when we returned the lynch to being a threat to most players, we got significant amounts of information both from Pyromancer and about who other players would vote for under pressure at the end of a cycle.
  11. Even if we don’t lynch you, there’s value in a lynch discussion, and time left in the cycle yet. TheYoungPyromancer ought to reduce the threshold for a successful counterlynch.
  12. It’s 4:12am, Pyromancer. I’m trying to work out whether you’re simply bluffing, whether you’re Khriss or Hoid, or whether you are indeed Survival.
  13. My apologies - I’d forgotten that that existed completely.
  14. How can you have taken investiture from two Shards as Survival? My understanding is that it is Khriss that has that ability.
  15. If you’re survival, as you claim, what did you do last night cycle that results in your having no charges?