little wilson

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2,365 Steel Inquisitor

About little wilson

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    Provo, Utah
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    traveling, family history/genealogy, board games, talking

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  1. Sanderson Elimination: Questions & Answers

    I asked Eric/Chaos about that a while ago, and he said it's not possible with the update, unfortunately.
  2. Sanderson Elimination: Questions & Answers

    Back when I was analyzing things closely, I used a spreadsheet. My first game spreadsheet was for LG6. Some of my other spreadsheets are for AG1, LG12, and LG14. I no longer do spreadsheets though, because I'm trying not to get so intensely involved in the games and spend so much time on each one. But the LG14 one in particular worked for me, since I dropped the post count for each player and started paying attention to how frequently people were online, which was something I used more than post count.
  3. Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

    Sorry about my lack of posting: I've been somewhat distracted the last couple days. Since it looks like the Dalinar lynch is set in stone and my thoughts on that are unchanged (particularly given his Mistborn reveal--if he's lying, whatever, but if he's actually Spiked, why would the Spiked lurch him if they knew that he wouldn't die anyway? Assuming that it was the Spiked who lurched him, obviously, but I feel like that's a pretty safe assumption), my vote is going to go on my top suspicion right now. So Hero.
  4. Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

    I would suggest we refrain from giving any action suggestions to rolled in the thread. If they do have a Lurcher (I'm leaning strongly towards yes, right now), and they've used that Lurcher to save me and Dalinar (assuming Dalinar is Village), they are clearly not opposed to using their roles offensively, to let villagers gather suspicion. So what happens if they have a smoker? In AG 1, the Spiked has two smokers and they used them offensively, smoking villagers. They smoked me every cycle until they killed me, making sure that no one would be able to confirm my alignment. This isn't a tactic used frequently, but it does happen, and therefore, we cannot risk giving them public information for how we're using any of our roles. That just makes it all the easier for them to thwart in any way. As for Dalinar, I'm not convinced of his guilt. I'm also not convinced of his innocence either, but I'm leaning towards a villager being set up. As has already been said, the longer discussion stays focused on one topic, the more time the Spiked have to kill more villagers. I'm with Stink: let's not let this day get fixated on one person. Right now, I'm inclined to agree with Wyrm and Mage about Hero. The way he started the night vote for the Coinshot could easily have been that of a spiked wanting to direct a potential villager Coinshot onto a target so they could protect that same target. And therefore focus discussion. His quick vote and insistence that Dalinar is almost certainly evil also makes me wary. Lopen is another one I'm mildly suspicious of, though that's because I was in a PM with Wyrm last cycle, and Wyrm was asking me questions about WGG's and stuff, claiming it was for Lopen. If Lopen wanted to know that, why didn't he just ask me directly? Why not start a PM with me to talk with me and decide for himself if I'm evil? Why use a proxy? It doesn't even make sense, unless he didn't need to vet me out because he already knows. And now his convoluted theory with Kipper and Gamma also strikes me as an attempt to get a villager lynched or vig killed. I have a few people I'm leaning good on: Jondesu, El, Orlok, and Joe, though I'll admit that the latter three were contingent on my attack coming from a team that wanted me dead, and if they used their own Lurcher to save me, that analysis is moot. I was hoping PMs would be around for longer so I could get a better read, but oh well. It is what it is.
  5. Byu Cosmere Club

    Okay, so it sounds like people are good for starting this back up again. When do we want to meet?
  6. Sanderson Elimination: Questions & Answers

    That's an awfully defeatist way of looking at things. You're also not the only person dealing with a high death rate. Here's some interesting statistics: the sum of all the characters/avatars who have been in every game played in SE is 1653. The death count is 1102, or 66.7%. This means that the average survival rate is 33.3%. Individuals with a lower survival rate than that die more frequently than the average SE player. Here are the survival rates of a selection of players with lower survival rates than the average: A couple things I'd like to comment on this. Everyone, minus Ecth, that is higher than Seonid has played more than 20 games. Seonid, Hael, and Kas are all at 17-18 games. The rest, including Ecth, are between 10 and 15. There are some really low survival rates there. Mage is less than 10%. He's only survived one game, out of 15. That's kind of insane. Hael died the first 12 games he played. However, if we count just from the time people stopped making a hobby of Hael Hunting, his rate is 60%. 3 out of 5. Not too bad. And I imagine, it'll hold to about that. If he were to continue playing rather than going on a hiatus, I imagine his death rate would balance out at about 30%. Once you hit about 25 games, the survival rate you have is probably going to stay about the same, unless you make a concerted effort to change it, and even then, it's questionable. Death is just something that happens. It usually balances out the more you play. The average survival rate for those with 20 games or more is about 30%. So less than the average SE player, but not by much. Certainly better than 20-25%. But that's because you've played more games and people have a better placement of you in terms of kill-necessity, and you've gotten better at being less suspicious-looking, no matter your alignment, so you'll probably by lynched less as well. Especially early on. For example: You've been lynched 7 times in your 12 games. 2 of those lynches were when you were village (so you accrued suspicion and couldn't deflect it....or your brother arranged your lynch because he was evil ), and 3 were when you were evil. You've been lynched every time you're evil. But I'll bet you've learned something every time you've been evil as well. You're probably learning how to avoid suspicion. That's what happens when you're evil. You learn. You get better. Eventually, you'll make it through a game without getting lynched as an eliminator. You might get vig-killed, but hey: at least it wasn't a lynch. And you'll improve from that. You've been killed by the eliminators once, and that was in MR18, towards the later part of that game. You've been attacked by the eliminators a couple of times early on as well, but you didn't die to them. And yes, attack cycle is rather different than death cycle. The first block of information is the cycle you take your first hit. The second block of information is what cycle you die. You've been attacked 4 times in the first 2 cycles, but you've only been killed 3 times in that same chunk of time. You tend to be attacked first between cycle 3 and 4, but you don't tend to die until cycles 5 or 6. That's...not bad. Sure, your death rate in the first two cycle is on the high side, but there are others with a high number of deaths in those same cycles. Orlok has been killed 7 times in the first two cycles. He can definitely relate, because he was really upset about it after the 4th or 5th time it happened. Really, it's just about playing more. Those early deaths will average out. Your survival rate will rise. You've only played 12 games, which I get that that sounds like a lot, but comparatively, it's fairly low. There have been players who played 10+ games before they finally became an eliminator for the first time. Like I already said, Hael died the first 12 games he played. 12 games isn't enough to get into the true direction your stats are headed. That takes around 25 games. And I can practically guarantee you that your stats won't look like this 13 games from now.
  7. Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

    Um. Hm. I know you did alignment of one of the voters. I thought it was first voter. I know it was in a game where Nyali had mentioned that 90% of the time, the first (or second, whichever it was) voter is an eliminator, and since you were bored in the doc, and we were both curious, you checked with all the games and found it was the opposite here. But I can't remember what game doc it was in. Pretty sure it was after LG 20 though. Possibly LG 25. Maybe. I don't know. Sorry. >>
  8. Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

    Technically, it is what she said, but I don't think it's what she meant. The way it's worded, with the punctuation and everything, the sentence is saying to protect inactives because they're more useful than actives. But that's not what she meant, obviously.
  9. Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

    I suppose I shouldn't be surprised about the paranoia, but seriously? You do realize that I'm aware of the extreme paranoia that's constantly around me, right? The fear? I just got killed by an eliminator team with two people on it who don't like to kill me. If two people who know me are going to be that wary of me/kill me for purely strategic reasons, why should those who don't be any different? No matter my actual alignment, people will be hesitant to trust me. That's just a fact, and it's one I've come to terms with. I'll readily admit that I like WGG's. Pulled one in LG2 and suggested the LG15b one. But guess what? I don't like to pull them on me. I prefer to get teammates in positions of trust. Always have, and that's not something that's changed, or is likely to. I die. That's what I do. I don't have a 15 game death streak for no reason. I'm not irritated about not having survived a game in two years for no reason. I die no matter my alignment. So why would I attempt to gain trust for myself like this, knowing that I am highly likely to die even with that "boost"? And yes, you can spin your I Know You Know theories all you want, saying that I'd do it just because I could say this, but no. I don't operate like that. I operate on strategy. What in the world is strategic about getting everyone to focus on me and be paranoid? If I'm going to do a WGG, wouldn't it be better to do one on a teammate that won't attract this kind of attention? Honestly, I'm now suspicious of Stick for being so convinced I'm an eliminator. Paranoia I can understand. But it's like Kipper just said. The attack isn't particularly alignment indicative either way, unless you're willing to trust what I say about disliking myself being the target of WGG's, which I'm betting most of you aren't. I know my alignment and I find it interesting that someone is pushing so hard for the idea of the attack being a WGG at the cost of any other possibility. I rather think it's because Stick is Spiked and is hoping to either get me lynched or vig-killed since they failed to kill me. What better way than to get the village to complete the job for them?
  10. Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

    For once, Whistler wasn't whistling. He moved around the ashes, silent tears coursing down his cheeks, trying to find anything salvageable. but there was nothing left. Nothing. His home, his shop, his everything was gone. And this...mess... He couldn't fix it. He looked at his hands, blackened with the ash and cringed. He'd been proud of what he'd built with his own two hands. Proud. And now he'd have to hope Lord Conrad or that Terris Herwynbe's mysterious Lord would allow a charity case to live in their fine manor houses. Whistler shoke his head. Not for long, he swore. Not for long. He'd bet everything he had (or once had) there he would find those who did this to him. And they would pay. Oh, yes, they would pay. Well then. That was enlightening for me. I didn't post at all, only had a single PM, and yet I still got attacked. Thanks for that. Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside to know people so desperately want to kill me. Right now, the only game relevant thought I have is that I completely agree with Hero about the contribution crusade, especially considering the state of inactives in recent games. So be active, people! Other than that, I have no suspicions, since like I said, I was only in one PM and the thread was mostly RP. I'm hoping the thread discussion today will be more enlightening. I'm tired though, since I've been sleep deprived the last 3-4 nights (I'd bluetext that but I'm on mobile and feeling lazy), so I'm going to go to bed and I'll be back in the morning. Good night. And good morning? For the game? Whatever. I'm off.
  11. Sanderson Elimination: Questions & Answers

    Something I thought of recently is that new players don't necessarily know what rules are enforced more than others. For example, a lot of mafia forums have etiquette policies, and a number of these etiquette policies say things about insulting other players and being a poor sport, but those aren't rules that are enforced unless someone specifically mentions it. Last year's mafia championship game that Hael participated in had a number of players openly insulting other players, but they were never called out. Not until Hael finally commented on it to the GM, and then the GM gave a notice. But it didn't stop the insults, and nothing else was said. While there may be rules in place, that doesn't mean those rules will be enforced. 17th Shard has a relatively small moderating team, considering our member base. And yet we have relatively few problems arise. Do you want to know why? Because the members themselves regulate the site. If someone gets negative, it's usually a member who says something about it and tries to help the other person understand why the 17th Shard isn't the place for such negativity. First contact is rarely with staff. Because the members have taken it upon themselves to adopt the rules and help others understand them. To help others adopt them too. This is why the Shard has been and will likely continue to be the safe haven that it is. It's not the staff enforcing rules, except in extreme situations where they must. It's the members upholding the rules and helping new people understand them as well. We can do the same thing here. But it's going to take a concerted effort from the players, the moderators and the GMs to do. It's not just for the GMs to put filters in place and regulate inactives like that. It's not just for the moderators to blacklist chronic inactives. It's not just for the players to deal with it. It's for everyone to. That might mean an eliminator team killing an inactive or two. That might mean an extremely harsh inactivity filter. That might mean blacklisting people who don't contribute to the game in any way post signing up. That might mean trying not to lurk, even though it's strategically sound for you to blend in with inactives. That might mean restricting people from playing multiple games (or at least multiple LGs) at one time, as Hael suggested. Whatever it means, it needs to be done in tandem, with the support of the majority. Saying that you don't have to do something because someone else will handle it won't fix the issue. If you're not willing to take the responsibility of fixing the problem on yourself, the problem will probably never be fixed and the only person you'll have to blame for it is yourself for being unwilling to help. This is not something one or two or five people can tackle. This is something that needs the support of the community as a whole, or it will never be fixed. And this doesn't even have to be just about inactivity. If someone posts a super-complex game in the Game Creation thread and you're worried about the complexity of it, say something about that. Voice those concerns. Maybe help them break the game down into something more manageable that they still like but is balanced. We can all help each other. By helping each other, we'll be helping the games, in all aspects.
  12. MR19: Wrap-Up: United in a Single Cause

    GM Thoughts This game was interesting to balance. I knew I didn't want a role madness game like last time, since last game was a little hard to balance right, due to there being so many roles and so many Diagrammists (it was an 8-person team last time, with 2 inactives on it. I knowingly placed inactives or those who I thought would go inactive on the team to counterbalance the number of Diagrammists). I liked the number of Regulars and I really liked the distribution, but I realized that having vigilantes in a game where people have to use their role action in the first two cycles could cause some issues. Fortunately, it wasn't a big deal. I'm really happy with the communications in this iteration. Last time, the eliminators had a doc, and the village only had the chain of command PMs, which could only be used once per game rather than once per cycle. The village ended up PMing Diagrammists and they never got organized. The communications this game went a lot better. The Diagrammists not having a doc I think was a good change, since it made it a little harder for them to get organized quickly. I'd intended for it to be risky for them as well, with the Edgedancer able to potentially spy on Diagrammist PMs. I hadn't counted on an Edgedancer Private spying on his Captain, and that Captain revealing his entire team in a PM, but...oh well. It happens. I think it's a good lesson everyone should learn about PM safety. While, yes, Joe was talking to his teammate, you never know if anyone is listening in, or in other cases, if the person you're talking to is trustworthy, so sharing very sensitive information via PMs is generally not a good idea. So if nothing else, I'm happy that there was a good lesson to be learned through this game. I also liked the inactivity filter, and think it worked well. Only 3 people out of 20 didn't PM, post and/or submit a role action. One of those three only didn't submit a role action, and he was a Cook and didn't want to kill. The other two only did one of the three each. And then in Cycle 2, all three of them were some of the first to complete all three of their activity actions. All-in-all, everyone stayed pretty active. Of course, it was only three cycles, but still. There was a good bit of activity in PMs and the thread, and just about everyone who could submit an action did. Which was the point of the filter, and it worked. If there's one thing I would change, it would be discussion about the Bondsmith win con. I think I would make it so the Bondsmith win con cannot be strategized for openly. I might even go so far as to say that the Bondsmith win con cannot be mentioned or even alluded to in the thread. When I'd envisioned the Bondsmith win con initially, it was using PMs and forming alliances and potentially betraying people. It was meant to be an ironic form of unity. Unity brought about through betrayals and backstabbing. That's....not what happened here. I understand the openness, given the situation, but I definitely would want to prevent such openness from happening again. Also, in my mind, the Ghostbloods and the Sons of Honour are definitely the village factions. They can win together, and they very easily could've in this game. Once Arinian died, the SH and the GBs both had 1 living Radiant. Had the Diagrammists been killed, and those last two Radiants survived (not sure if Mage would've been able to, since he'd outed himself to Joe), everyone but the Diagrammists would've won, just like any other elimination game. So while it's a faction game, it is possible for all the non-Diagrammists to win. So this isn't that much different that a standard elimination game. It just also has a couple village factions that can work together, if they choose to. Thus far, neither has really chosen to work together much, in either iteration. Overall, I'm okay with how the game went. Sure, it was short. But it was interesting seeing Joe in action, trying to salvage his mistake, lying through his teeth to the thread and Mage and basically anyone who was not a Diagrammist. It was interesting seeing some of the Ghostbloods being like "The Sons of Honour are a bigger threat than the Diagrammists. Kill them." And it was really funny to see Son of Honour Commander Seonid in contact with Restares/Bard, saying in the thread that he was a mere Private and that his entire upline had just been slaughtered. And then the Ghostblood Cook killing him for good measure, right after the SH Cook had taken out the other SH Commander.... >> The second cycle was hilarious. The third cycle....well. At least everyone posted in the thread. And good thing too, because if they hadn't the Bondsmith win con wouldn't have been achieved right then, because someone would've almost certainly died to inactivity. I want to thank Stink for helping me GM this and handling most of the writeups. And about that comic writeup: that thing took me two hours to do, and I used a program on my work computer to put it all together. If I can download a decent (free) program onto my laptop that can do something similar fairly intuitively, and I know the results and have time to draw it out without it taking up time for the next cycle, you might see writeup comics in the future. Maybe. I did have a lot of fun drawing it, so it could happen again. (Oh, and Kynedath: that SH with the "real" eye in the first panel wasn't meant to be you, though you're very welcome to claim him if you like. I just noticed his head was weirdly-shaped and decided to make him a crazy cross-eyed person jumping in the air ) Thanks again, everyone, for playing. And remember: PM SAFETY.
  13. Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

    Whistler whistled as he scrubbed the ash off the floor. He pushed the bucket along with him, moving across the floor, dipping the brush in the bucket and scrubbing. Scoot, slosh, scrub; scoot, slosh, scrub. There was a rhythm and it worked. After a while, the floor was sparkling clean and he sighed in relief. Such dirtiness always grated at his nerves, especially when it was within his own home and shop. No, his things had to be neat and clean. Always. Everything in its rightful place. Nothing out of order. Of course, with the ashmounts acting up since the fiasco with the Lord Ruler down in Luthadel, his life was a little more....difficult. Bloody hard to keep the floors clean when someone tracked ash in every time they walked through the door into his shop. The door to the outside creaked as it opened and closed with a bang. He glanced up from his position in the corner and groaned softly. Sure enough, a trail of ash marred his floor. "Whistler? Are you here?" Whistler stood to help his customer, bustling around his little shop to get the ingredients the man requested. "You heard the news yet?" His customer asked as he placed a handful of boxings on the counter. "What news?" "The koloss. There's supposed to be an army of koloss heading for us." Whistler laughed. "I'll believe that when I see it. What would koloss want with our little town? I'd bet 5 of these here boxings that it's all just a tall tale. You'll see." "I'd take you up on the bet, but I don't reckon I want to bet against us. We'd never survive a koloss attack." The man walked out with his goods, and the soft breeze blew more ash in while the door was open. Whistler sighed and walked to the back of his shop, whistling as he went. Time to get that bucket again. His floor needed cleaning. - Whistler is in. He's the shopkeeper, who is very neat and a compulsive gambler. One could also say he's a hobbyist, if you count his obsession for whistling as a hobby.
  14. Wrap-Up: United in a Single Cause STINK just got back from work and had a bajillion messages from Wilson, mostly along the lines of 'STINK where's the write-up’ or 'STINK where's the stink’, because apparently Wilson has lost her fingers and can no longer draw. RIP Fingers. Anyway, as to the actual state of the game, Joe had managed to find a speakerphone that could be broadcasted through the whole of Urithiru and was constantly saying 'Bondsmith4Life’, which was a great slogan cause there were 4 Diagrammists. Aman was in the corner with a pen and paper, writing actual RP which everyone should do btw. Unfortunately, his RP was so good that everyone got jealous and decided that this guy needed to go, preferably to Davie Jones Locker. I would tell you what Aman was writing at his time of death, but the paper is soaked in blood and quite disgusting to be honest with you. Meanwhile, everyone else also wanted the new guy Drake to be murdered in front of everyone's eyes (please stay Drake we don't all love murdering, torture’s fun too). Drake was defiant though, he was Defiant Drake, capable of going against anything that someone suggests, even his own plans. Unfortunately for him, he couldn't defy the noose hanging around his neck, but I can confirm that he gave it a good try before Joe also stabbed him in the neck, which doesn't sound like it should work, but who needs suspension of disbelief. Anyway, at this point Joe’s campaign succeeded, and the Bondsmith successfully won the presidential campaign for Urithiru, with a loyal people behind him. It is inevitable that someone will backstab him at some point (this is Urithiru, after all) but right now everything is lovely and peaceful, as long as you ignore the countless dead bodies with empty eyes gazing into the uncomfortably hot abyss with the weather forecast saying it's going to be sunny and warm tomorrow. STINK was proud of his write-up done in 10 minutes, and promptly told Wilson to 'suck it’. There was a fair bit more involved, but there's no need to tell all you successful living people about that, right? - Uther (Drake Marshall) was lynched! He was a Ghostblood! Berilen Lieken (Amanuensis) was killed! He was a Ghostblood! Uther/Drake Marshall (lots of votes): basically everyone - The Bondsmith win con has been achieved! All the living players win! All the dead players lose! The Tranquilline Halls:(Dead/Spec Doc) Master Spreadsheet My GM thoughts will be up either today or tomorrow. I don’t have much to say, but I’ll note a few things. Co-GM thoughts after GM thoughts ← Written by STINK obvs. Thanks for playing everyone!